Oversold Biotechs – Deserved or Not?

By Mark Pachacz Posted on April 28th, 2025

	AOI Change	Dow Jones Change Index	Nasdaq Biotech Index Change	Bioshares Index (change)	Bioshares Model Portfolio	Nasdaq Small Cap Biotech Change
			(NBI)		(change)	Index
31-Dec-24	8521	42544	4311			3325
April low 17-Apr-25	7524 -11.7% 8022 -5.9%	37645 -11.5% 39142 -8.0%	3732 -13.4% 3969 -7.9%	-14.2%	-14.3%	2340 -29.6%

Anteris finished last year with $113 million in funds (US$70.5 million). The company intends to start its pivotal study this year with its aortic heart valve, DurAVR, although will need to raise additional funding, equity or other, to complete the study. It has sufficient funding for this year.

Syntara (SNT: $0.051, last raise at $0.06) released positive Phase II data in myelofibrosis late last year and more advanced data from its Phase II skin scarring study. The company is expected to release more mature data in its myelofibrosis study, as additional patients reach the 12-month treatment period. It also plans to start another skin scarring study this quarter in more recently developed scars with a new formulation. Whilst Professor Fiona Wood will continue a study with the first formulation in the more difficult-to-treat keloid scars.

Syntara has also signalled that it is exploring global/regional partnerships for the myelofibrosis program. The company held a pro- forma cash balance of $20.7 million at the end of last year, which should be sufficient to fund the business to mid 2026.

Amplia Therapeutics (ATX: $0.052, last raise at $0.115) is conducting a Phase IIa study with its small molecule drug candidate, narmafotinib in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer, which is an exceptionally difficult disease in which to gain improvement. The patients are also receiving standard-of-care chemotherapy (gemcitabine and nab-paclitaxel). The historical partial response rate from this chemotherapy regimen is 23%. Amplia is aiming for at least a 27% partial response. A partial response is defined as at least a 30% reduction in tumour size, sustained for at least two months, with no new tumours.

The company started the study in January 2024 and completed the recruitment of 55 patients ahead of schedule in March this year, indicating a strong demand to explore such a novel treatment.

In December last year, 38 patients had been recruited with a partial response rate of 34% achieved (in 9/16 patients). Last month the company indicated a similar response rate in 13 from 38 patients treated. The company is aiming to achieve a partial response in at least 15/55 patients (27%) which would indicate a benefit over historical treatment success with chemotherapy alone.

Amplia also announced, earlier this month, that it intends to start a similar Phase II study in the US (and Australia) with the chemotherapy regimen used in the US (FOLFORINOX).

Amplia finished last year with $13.7 million in cash, enough to last to mid-2027 based on its FY2024 cash usage.

Bioshares recommendations:
Anteris: Speculative Buy Class A
Syntara: Speculative Buy Class A
Amplia Therapeutics: Speculative Buy Class B

Note that the CEOs of Anteris, Syntara and Amplia Therapeutics will be presenting at this year's Bioshares Biotech Summit, 7-8 August, in Hobart. Registration opens this week.

Disclaimer:
Information contained in this newsletter is not a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry or security. The opinions and estimates herein expressed represent the current judgement of the publisher and are subject to change. Blake Industry and Market Analysis Pty Ltd (BIMA) and any of their associates, officers or staff may have interests in securities referred to herein (Corporations Law s.849). Details contained herein have been prepared for general circulation and do not have regard to any person’s or company’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Accordingly, no recipients should rely on any recommendation (whether express or implied) contained in this document without consulting their investment adviser (Corporations Law s.851). The persons involved in or responsible for the preparation and publication of this report believe the information herein is accurate but no warranty of accuracy is given and persons seeking to rely on information provided herein should make their own independent enquiries. Details contained herein have been issued on the basis they are only for the particular person or company to whom they have been provided by Blake Industry and Market Analysis Pty Ltd. The Directors and/or associates declare interests in the following ASX Healthcare and Biotechnology sector securities: Analyst MP: 1AD, ACR, AVR, CGS, CUV, CYC, DXB, IMM, LBT, MX1, OPT, NEU, PAB, PXS,RNO,SOM. These interests can change at any time and are not additional recommendations. Holdings in stocks valued at less than $100 are not disclosed.

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Oversold Biotechs – Deserved or Not?

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